FEATURE 'New Zealand have a deeply ingrained knack of losing their discipline'

Rugby is such a multi-faceted game that a whole industry has been built around analysing data to unearth secrets and identify weak spots in opposition teams.

But it doesn’t take a smart software programme or experienced cruncher of numbers to understand the importance of maintaining discipline in the current climate.

The numbers are unequivocal that the key to being successful sits with being able to keep 15 players on the park, and the teams that most often do so, are likely to be most successful.

Ireland have put a huge focus on making smart decisions in the contact areas and maintaining a high level of accuracy in their general execution and application.

The critical aspects in which they have been world leaders are tackle and cleanout technique, the two areas where teams are most vulnerable to losing players to cards.

World Rugby has placed great importance on making the game safer, with the heaviest emphasis on lowering tackle heights, and Ireland’s disciplinary record almost tells the story of why they have been able to climb to and stay at number one in the world.

In their last 23 Tests, stretching back to June 2021, they have picked up just two yellow cards.

France, who throughout 2021 and 2022 were vying with Ireland for that top spot, were almost as well disciplined, being shown one yellow and one red over that period.

The All Blacks, in stark contrast, have been among the least disciplined teams in the world game since 2020 and their inability to keep all their players on the field was a major contributing factor to the struggle they endured in the first three years after the last World Cup.

Between 2020 and 2022 they played 35 Tests and were shown 16 yellows and three reds. They won 24, lost nine and drew two for a 70%.

In five of those nine defeats, they were shown either a yellow or red card, and on one occasion both.

There was a clear trend: if the team was under pressure at the set-piece and being physically dominated at the breakdown, then they would be more likely to make bad decisions and be guilty of poor technique.

Their lack of discipline in defeat by Ireland in 2021, and in the second and third Tests of the July 2022 series, was crippling.

Unsurprisingly, New Zealand came into the 2023 season with a determination to clean things up, and after four Tests they had earned four victories and no cards.

The second 2022 match in Dunedin was the most powerful illustration of how the All Blacks could lose the plot in an incredibly short timeframe.

Ireland scored a try after a few minutes and New Zealand almost instantly collapsed in response.

Leicester Fainga’anuku was yellow carded for taking a player out in the air and a few minutes later Ofa Tu’ungafasi was in the bin for a high tackle.

Worse was to come when Angus Ta’avao was red carded before half-time for a high tackle and the All Blacks were reduced to 12 men for a short period.

When they lost to France in 2021, there was an untimely yellow card shown to Ardie Savea which opened the door for the hosts to regain momentum and charge to victory, while England’s three tries in the last 10 minutes at Twickenham in 2022 to salvage an unlikely draw came when the All Blacks only had 14 men on the field.

Unsurprisingly, New Zealand came into the 2023 season with a determination to clean things up, and after four Tests they had earned four victories and no cards.

Ahead of their fifth game, against South Africa at Twickenham, the topic of tackle technique was dominating the media agenda, with both Owen Farrell and Billy Vunipola facing judicial hearings after being sent off in warm-up matches.

When he was asked whether he feared losing any player to a card in the final Test before the World Cup, All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan said: “There have been a lot of cards, but the rules are pretty obvious.

“You have just got to stay away from the head. You have got to get your tackle technique right and live under the ball. You have still got to be dominant though.”

It was an answer which alluded to how hard the New Zealand have worked this year to drop their body heights and get their tackle technique right.

But after 40 minutes of the Test at Twickenham, the All Blacks were in chaos. Their clean disciplinary record was destroyed after Scott Barrett picked up a yellow card for not rolling away, Sam Cane was punished for pulling down a maul and then Barrett was shown a second yellow after 38 minutes for a dangerous cleanout.

Some may have felt cards were the source of New Zealand’s problems – but they were in fact a symptom as the South Africans were crushing the All Blacks physically.

The Boks won a penalty in the first scrum and never looked back. They had the All Blacks on the back foot with the power of their driving maul and they were able to dominate the collision areas.

New Zealand couldn’t win the ball, keep the ball or generate the speed of possession they wanted and as they felt that pressure of not being able to get into the game, their discipline frayed.

It wasn’t just the bad decisions by Cane and Barrett which epitomised the underlying lack of control, there were acts of ill-discipline everywhere.

We got an uppercut in a couple of areas we’ve been making some big strides.
Ian Foster

Jordie Barrett threw an intercept pass to gift the Boks a try. Beauden Barrett sliced a kick out of defence that set the South Africans up for another and the accuracy and cohesion which defined the All Blacks game in 2023, evaporated.

When the Boks went 35-0 ahead with 12 minutes left, it was hard not to recall Foster saying two days earlier: “You only have to go back to the last World Cup to see how cards dominated the pool stage, particularly.

“But if you define the word ‘discipline’ as ‘technique’, we can control that. We’re working hard to make sure our technique is as good as it needs to be.

“As a coach and a player, you want something you can control. We’re not helpless in this situation. We need to do what we need to do to minimise the risk.”

The All Blacks didn’t control the things they could, and it was a stunning reminder this World Cup could swing in unforeseen ways if teams are not on top of their discipline, and that it only takes one sin-binning for a Test to head in a dramatically different direction.

New Zealand were under intense pressure for the first 20 minutes and managed just 19% possession and 20% of the territory. Barrett’s first yellow only compounded things.

South Africa already had the edge at scrum time and reduced to seven men, the All Blacks were in an impossible place. And they unravelled.

As Foster said after the record defeat: “We got an uppercut in a couple of areas we’ve been making some big strides.

“We got squeezed today and exposed to a couple of habits we’ve got to sort out. It’s a great time for that to happen and it also reiterates you’ve got to keep your players on the park.

“Losing our form lock at that stage of the game against South Africa doesn’t make life any easier. As we go into a World Cup it’s a very clear reminder about the importance of set-piece, getting your scrum and lineout right and maintaining discipline.

“I’d rather have those lessons today a couple of weeks out from the World Cup than in a fortnight.”

Foster is right that it is better to stuff up the dress rehearsal than the opening night, but the fact the All Blacks fell off the wagon so close to the World Cup is still a concern.

It does seem New Zealand have a deeply ingrained knack of losing their discipline if they are losing the physical battle – something France will have noted and undoubtedly look to target the night the World Cup kicks off.